Projections

Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture

FPL projections

Gameweek 5: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.

Brentford vs ChelseaUpcoming

Fri 18 Sep · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brentford

BREBrentford

2.51

2.51

30%

30%

Chelsea

CHEChelsea

1.19

1.19

8%

8%

2-1

9%

2-0

8%

3-1

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Thiago 55%Lewis-Potter 27%Schade 23%João Pedro 31%Rogers 17%Palmer 16%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Spurs vs Aston VillaUpcoming

Sat 19 Sep · 12:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Spurs

TOTSpurs

1.40

1.40

33%

33%

Aston Villa

AVLAston Villa

1.12

1.12

25%

25%

1-1

13%

1-0

11%

0-1

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

Marmoush 28%Tel 12%Van de Ven 12%N.Jackson 19%McGinn 19%Buendía 18%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Newcastle vs Hull CityUpcoming

Sat 19 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Newcastle

NEWNewcastle

1.62

1.62

31%

31%

Hull City

HULHull City

1.17

1.17

20%

20%

1-1

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

Wissa 46%Elanga 16%Fernandez-Pardo 15%McBurnie 29%Ajayi 11%Belloumi 10%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Brighton vs ArsenalUpcoming

Sat 19 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brighton

BHABrighton

0.88

0.88

25%

25%

Arsenal

ARSArsenal

1.37

1.37

42%

42%

0-1

14%

1-1

13%

0-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Kostoulas 14%De Cuyper 13%Groß 10%Saka 23%Havertz 21%Ødegaard 16%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Everton vs Ipswich TownUpcoming

Sat 19 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Everton

EVEEverton

1.94

1.94

28%

28%

Ipswich Town

IPSIpswich Town

1.28

1.28

14%

14%

1-1

10%

2-1

10%

1-0

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Barry 61%Dewsbury-Hall 20%George 15%Emersonn 26%Enciso 18%Maeda 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Nott'm Forest vs Coventry CityUpcoming

Sat 19 Sep · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Nott'm Forest

NFONott'm Forest

1.29

1.29

54%

54%

Coventry City

COVCoventry City

0.62

0.62

28%

28%

1-0

19%

0-0

15%

2-0

12%

most likely

Likely scorers

Igor Jesus 31%Gibbs-White 30%Delap 14%Awoniyi 19%Thomas-Asante 9%Simms 8%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Man City vs SunderlandUpcoming

Sun 20 Sep · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Man City

MCIMan City

2.20

2.20

47%

47%

Sunderland

SUNSunderland

0.75

0.75

11%

11%

2-0

13%

1-0

11%

2-1

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

Haaland 47%Foden 24%Guéhi 16%Brobbey 15%E.Le Fée 15%Isidor 10%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Leeds vs Crystal PalaceUpcoming

Sun 20 Sep · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Leeds

LEELeeds

2.01

2.01

21%

21%

Crystal Palace

CRYCrystal Palace

1.57

1.57

13%

13%

2-1

9%

1-1

9%

2-2

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Calvert-Lewin 48%Bogle 19%Stach 18%Nketiah 27%Strand Larsen 17%Mitchell 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Bournemouth vs LiverpoolUpcoming

Sun 20 Sep · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Bournemouth

BOUBournemouth

1.39

1.39

22%

22%

Liverpool

LIVLiverpool

1.49

1.49

25%

25%

1-1

12%

1-2

9%

0-1

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Tavernier 28%Evanilson 27%Kluivert 16%Isak 40%Szoboszlai 22%Wirtz 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Fulham vs Man UtdUpcoming

Sun 20 Sep · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Fulham

FULFulham

1.58

1.58

21%

21%

Man Utd

MUNMan Utd

1.57

1.57

21%

21%

1-1

11%

2-1

8%

1-2

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Gonzalo 35%King 19%Palacios 16%Mbeumo 32%B.Fernandes 32%Tielemans 11%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".