Projections

Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture

FPL projections

Gameweek 6: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.

Arsenal vs LeedsUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 12:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Arsenal

ARSArsenal

2.02

2.02

64%

64%

Leeds

LEELeeds

0.45

0.45

13%

13%

2-0

17%

1-0

17%

3-0

12%

most likely

Likely scorers

Saka 32%Havertz 30%Ødegaard 23%Calvert-Lewin 22%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Chelsea vs BournemouthUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Chelsea

CHEChelsea

2.47

2.47

28%

28%

Bournemouth

BOUBournemouth

1.29

1.29

8%

8%

2-1

9%

3-1

8%

1-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

João Pedro 54%Rogers 32%Palmer 30%Tavernier 26%Evanilson 25%Kluivert 15%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Aston Villa vs BrentfordUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Aston Villa

AVLAston Villa

1.00

1.00

20%

20%

Brentford

BREBrentford

1.63

1.63

37%

37%

0-1

12%

1-1

12%

0-2

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

N.Jackson 17%McGinn 17%Buendía 17%Thiago 40%Lewis-Potter 19%Schade 15%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Ipswich Town vs FulhamUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Ipswich Town

IPSIpswich Town

1.68

1.68

40%

40%

Fulham

FULFulham

0.91

0.91

19%

19%

1-0

13%

1-1

11%

2-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Emersonn 33%Enciso 23%Maeda 18%Gonzalo 22%King 12%Palacios 10%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Sunderland vs BrightonUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Sunderland

SUNSunderland

1.95

1.95

22%

22%

Brighton

BHABrighton

1.50

1.50

14%

14%

1-1

9%

2-1

9%

1-2

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Brobbey 35%E.Le Fée 34%Isidor 24%Kostoulas 19%De Cuyper 18%Groß 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Man Utd vs SpursUpcoming

Sat 10 Oct · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Man Utd

MUNMan Utd

3.81

3.81

44%

44%

Spurs

TOTSpurs

0.82

0.82

2%

2%

3-0

9%

4-0

9%

3-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Mbeumo 61%B.Fernandes 60%Tielemans 25%Marmoush 17%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Crystal Palace vs Nott'm ForestUpcoming

Sun 11 Oct · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Crystal Palace

CRYCrystal Palace

1.52

1.52

21%

21%

Nott'm Forest

NFONott'm Forest

1.56

1.56

22%

22%

1-1

11%

1-2

9%

2-1

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Nketiah 26%Strand Larsen 17%Mitchell 14%Igor Jesus 36%Gibbs-White 35%Delap 17%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Hull City vs EvertonUpcoming

Sun 11 Oct · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Hull City

HULHull City

1.20

1.20

23%

23%

Everton

EVEEverton

1.48

1.48

30%

30%

1-1

12%

0-1

10%

1-2

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

McBurnie 30%Ajayi 12%Belloumi 10%Barry 52%Dewsbury-Hall 16%George 11%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Liverpool vs Man CityUpcoming

Sun 11 Oct · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Liverpool

LIVLiverpool

1.31

1.31

14%

14%

Man City

MCIMan City

1.99

1.99

27%

27%

1-1

10%

1-2

10%

0-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Isak 37%Szoboszlai 19%Wirtz 12%Haaland 44%Foden 22%Guéhi 15%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Coventry City vs NewcastleUpcoming

Mon 12 Oct · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Coventry City

COVCoventry City

1.22

1.22

42%

42%

Newcastle

NEWNewcastle

0.87

0.87

29%

29%

1-0

15%

1-1

13%

0-0

12%

most likely

Likely scorers

Awoniyi 34%Thomas-Asante 17%Simms 16%Wissa 28%Elanga 9%Fernandez-Pardo 8%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".