Projections

Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture

FPL projections

Gameweek 7: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.

Everton vs ChelseaUpcoming

Sat 17 Oct · 12:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Everton

EVEEverton

1.25

1.25

27%

27%

Chelsea

CHEChelsea

1.31

1.31

29%

29%

1-1

13%

0-1

10%

1-0

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

Barry 46%Dewsbury-Hall 13%George 10%João Pedro 34%Rogers 18%Palmer 17%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Man City vs Ipswich TownUpcoming

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Man City

MCIMan City

3.45

3.45

38%

38%

Ipswich Town

IPSIpswich Town

0.98

0.98

3%

3%

3-0

8%

3-1

8%

2-0

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Haaland 64%Foden 34%Guéhi 24%Emersonn 20%Enciso 14%Maeda 11%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Fulham vs Hull CityUpcoming

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Fulham

FULFulham

2.10

2.10

34%

34%

Hull City

HULHull City

1.07

1.07

12%

12%

2-1

10%

1-1

9%

2-0

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

Gonzalo 43%King 25%Palacios 21%McBurnie 27%Ajayi 10%Belloumi 9%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Brentford vs LiverpoolUpcoming

Sat 17 Oct · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brentford

BREBrentford

1.97

1.97

25%

25%

Liverpool

LIVLiverpool

1.38

1.38

14%

14%

1-1

10%

2-1

9%

1-0

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Thiago 47%Lewis-Potter 22%Schade 18%Isak 38%Szoboszlai 20%Wirtz 13%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Newcastle vs Aston VillaUpcoming

Sat 17 Oct · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Newcastle

NEWNewcastle

1.93

1.93

22%

22%

Aston Villa

AVLAston Villa

1.49

1.49

14%

14%

1-1

9%

2-1

9%

1-2

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Wissa 51%Elanga 18%Fernandez-Pardo 17%N.Jackson 25%McGinn 24%Buendía 24%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Brighton vs Crystal PalaceUpcoming

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brighton

BHABrighton

3.07

3.07

21%

21%

Crystal Palace

CRYCrystal Palace

1.55

1.55

5%

5%

3-1

7%

2-1

7%

3-2

6%

most likely

Likely scorers

Kostoulas 36%De Cuyper 33%Groß 27%Nketiah 26%Strand Larsen 17%Mitchell 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Leeds vs Man UtdUpcoming

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Leeds

LEELeeds

1.29

1.29

29%

29%

Man Utd

MUNMan Utd

1.22

1.22

27%

27%

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

Calvert-Lewin 35%Bogle 13%Stach 12%Mbeumo 26%B.Fernandes 26%Tielemans 9%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Bournemouth vs SunderlandUpcoming

Sun 18 Oct · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Bournemouth

BOUBournemouth

1.75

1.75

38%

38%

Sunderland

SUNSunderland

0.97

0.97

17%

17%

1-0

12%

1-1

11%

2-0

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

Tavernier 34%Evanilson 32%Kluivert 20%Brobbey 19%E.Le Fée 18%Isidor 13%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Nott'm Forest vs ArsenalUpcoming

Sun 18 Oct · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Nott'm Forest

NFONott'm Forest

0.38

0.38

37%

37%

Arsenal

ARSArsenal

1.00

1.00

68%

68%

0-1

25%

0-0

25%

0-2

13%

most likely

Likely scorers

Igor Jesus 16%Gibbs-White 15%Saka 17%Havertz 16%Ødegaard 12%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Spurs vs Coventry CityUpcoming

Mon 19 Oct · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Spurs

TOTSpurs

1.32

1.32

40%

40%

Coventry City

COVCoventry City

0.91

0.91

27%

27%

1-0

14%

1-1

13%

0-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Marmoush 27%Tel 11%Van de Ven 11%Awoniyi 27%Thomas-Asante 13%Simms 12%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".