Projections

Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture

FPL projections

Gameweek 3: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 40% of the weight after 2 matches; the rest is last season's form.

Ipswich Town vs LiverpoolFT0-2

Fri 4 Sep · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Ipswich Town

IPSIpswich Town

1.73

1.73

9%

9%

Liverpool

LIVLiverpool

2.36

2.36

18%

18%

1-2

8%

2-2

7%

1-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Emersonn 29%Akpom 21%Maeda 13%Isak 49%Szoboszlai 20%Wirtz 11%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Newcastle vs BournemouthFT2-2

Sat 5 Sep · 12:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Newcastle

NEWNewcastle

2.42

2.42

17%

17%

Bournemouth

BOUBournemouth

1.79

1.79

9%

9%

2-1

8%

2-2

7%

1-1

6%

most likely

Likely scorers

Wissa 53%Elanga 14%Fernandez-Pardo 8%Evanilson 29%Kluivert 13%Tavernier 11%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Brighton vs LeedsFT1-1

Sat 5 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brighton

BHABrighton

2.09

2.09

36%

36%

Leeds

LEELeeds

1.02

1.02

12%

12%

2-1

10%

2-0

10%

1-1

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

De Cuyper 22%Kostoulas 21%Georginio 13%Calvert-Lewin 27%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Brentford vs SunderlandFT1-1

Sat 5 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Brentford

BREBrentford

2.52

2.52

42%

42%

Sunderland

SUNSunderland

0.86

0.86

8%

8%

2-0

11%

2-1

9%

3-0

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

Thiago 45%Lewis-Potter 16%Schade 16%Brobbey 18%Isidor 14%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Nott'm Forest vs SpursFT0-0

Sat 5 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Nott'm Forest

NFONott'm Forest

1.80

1.80

47%

47%

Spurs

TOTSpurs

0.76

0.76

16%

16%

1-0

14%

2-0

13%

1-1

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Igor Jesus 40%Gibbs-White 20%Wood 12%Marmoush 13%Solanke 9%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Man City vs Coventry CityFT1-0

Sat 5 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Man City

MCIMan City

2.09

2.09

56%

56%

Coventry City

COVCoventry City

0.58

0.58

12%

12%

2-0

15%

1-0

14%

3-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Haaland 36%Foden 16%Guéhi 14%Awoniyi 15%Thomas-Asante 10%Simms 8%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Fulham vs Crystal PalaceFT2-3

Sat 5 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Fulham

FULFulham

1.43

1.43

26%

26%

Crystal Palace

CRYCrystal Palace

1.33

1.33

24%

24%

1-1

12%

1-0

9%

2-1

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

Gonzalo 36%King 13%Nketiah 26%Strand Larsen 17%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Hull City vs Aston VillaFT0-0

Sat 5 Sep · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Hull City

HULHull City

1.51

1.51

43%

43%

Aston Villa

AVLAston Villa

0.83

0.83

22%

22%

1-0

14%

1-1

12%

2-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

McBurnie 30%Ajayi 11%N.Jackson 13%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Everton vs Man UtdFT2-2

Sun 6 Sep · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Everton

EVEEverton

1.47

1.47

9%

9%

Man Utd

MUNMan Utd

2.37

2.37

23%

23%

1-2

9%

1-1

7%

1-3

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Barry 41%Mbeumo 30%B.Fernandes 29%Šeško 10%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

Arsenal vs ChelseaFT2-1

Sun 6 Sep · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Arsenal

ARSArsenal

1.66

1.66

49%

49%

Chelsea

CHEChelsea

0.72

0.72

19%

19%

1-0

15%

2-0

13%

1-1

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Havertz 24%Saka 19%João Pedro 22%Rogers 9%

Updated 22:59 · xG weight 40% / 40%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".