Projections

Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture

FPL projections

Gameweek 4: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.

Liverpool vs FulhamUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Liverpool

LIVLiverpool

2.40

2.40

25%

25%

Fulham

FULFulham

1.38

1.38

9%

9%

2-1

9%

1-1

8%

3-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Isak 57%Szoboszlai 32%Wirtz 21%Gonzalo 31%King 17%Palacios 15%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Aston Villa vs Nott'm ForestUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Aston Villa

AVLAston Villa

1.01

1.01

29%

29%

Nott'm Forest

NFONott'm Forest

1.24

1.24

36%

36%

1-1

13%

0-1

13%

1-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

N.Jackson 17%McGinn 17%Buendía 17%Igor Jesus 30%Gibbs-White 29%Delap 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Chelsea vs Hull CityUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Chelsea

CHEChelsea

2.32

2.32

41%

41%

Hull City

HULHull City

0.90

0.90

10%

10%

2-0

11%

2-1

10%

1-0

9%

most likely

Likely scorers

João Pedro 52%Rogers 30%Palmer 28%McBurnie 23%Ajayi 9%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Bournemouth vs BrentfordUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Bournemouth

BOUBournemouth

1.61

1.61

23%

23%

Brentford

BREBrentford

1.48

1.48

20%

20%

1-1

11%

2-1

9%

1-2

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Tavernier 32%Evanilson 30%Kluivert 18%Thiago 38%Lewis-Potter 17%Schade 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich TownUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Crystal Palace

CRYCrystal Palace

2.54

2.54

18%

18%

Ipswich Town

IPSIpswich Town

1.72

1.72

8%

8%

2-1

8%

2-2

7%

3-1

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Nketiah 40%Strand Larsen 27%Mitchell 22%Emersonn 33%Enciso 23%Maeda 19%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Spurs vs EvertonUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Spurs

TOTSpurs

1.28

1.28

28%

28%

Everton

EVEEverton

1.26

1.26

28%

28%

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

10%

most likely

Likely scorers

Marmoush 26%Tel 11%Van de Ven 11%Barry 46%Dewsbury-Hall 14%George 10%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Sunderland vs ArsenalUpcoming

Sat 12 Sep · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Sunderland

SUNSunderland

0.53

0.53

30%

30%

Arsenal

ARSArsenal

1.22

1.22

59%

59%

0-1

21%

0-0

18%

0-2

13%

most likely

Likely scorers

Brobbey 13%E.Le Fée 13%Isidor 9%Saka 21%Havertz 19%Ødegaard 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Coventry City vs BrightonUpcoming

Sun 13 Sep · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Coventry City

COVCoventry City

1.58

1.58

18%

18%

Brighton

BHABrighton

1.71

1.71

21%

21%

1-1

10%

1-2

9%

2-1

8%

most likely

Likely scorers

Awoniyi 42%Thomas-Asante 21%Simms 20%Kostoulas 22%De Cuyper 20%Groß 16%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Man Utd vs Man CityUpcoming

Sun 13 Sep · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%

Man Utd

MUNMan Utd

2.01

2.01

16%

16%

Man City

MCIMan City

1.81

1.81

13%

13%

2-1

8%

1-1

8%

2-2

7%

most likely

Likely scorers

Mbeumo 39%B.Fernandes 39%Tielemans 14%Haaland 41%Foden 20%Guéhi 14%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

Leeds vs NewcastleUpcoming

Mon 14 Sep · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%

Leeds

LEELeeds

1.64

1.64

42%

42%

Newcastle

NEWNewcastle

0.88

0.88

19%

19%

1-0

13%

1-1

12%

2-0

11%

most likely

Likely scorers

Calvert-Lewin 42%Bogle 16%Stach 15%Wissa 28%Elanga 9%Fernandez-Pardo 8%

Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".