–0.0Man Utd projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
35%
35%
–0Man Utd clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
AVLAston Villa
1.04
1.04
–0.0Aston Villa projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
3%
3%
–0Aston Villa clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
3-1
8%
3-0
7%
4-1
7%
most likely
Updated 16:42 · xG weight 60% / 60%
About FPL Projections
FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.
The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.
Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".
NFONott'm Forest
MCIMan City
