FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 3: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 40% of the weight after 2 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
BrentfordBRE
Sat 15:00
SUNH
NewcastleNEW
Sat 12:30
BOUH
Man UtdMUN
Sun 14:00
EVEA
LiverpoolLIV
Fri 20:00
IPSA
Man CityMCI
Sat 15:00
COVH
BrightonBHA
Sat 15:00
LEEH
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sat 15:00
TOTH
BournemouthBOU
Sat 12:30
NEWA
Ipswich TownIPS
Fri 20:00
LIVH
ArsenalARS
Sun 16:30
CHEH
Hull CityHUL
Sat 17:30
AVLH
EvertonEVE
Sun 14:00
MUNH
FulhamFUL
Sat 15:00
CRYH
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sat 15:00
FULA
LeedsLEE
Sat 15:00
BHAA
SunderlandSUN
Sat 15:00
BREA
Aston VillaAVL
Sat 17:30
HULA
SpursTOT
Sat 15:00
NFOA
ChelseaCHE
Sun 16:30
ARSA
Coventry CityCOV
Sat 15:00
MCIA

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".