FPL Projections — Goals, Clean Sheets & Scorelines
Gameweek
Derived from team strength via Poisson model | refreshed 4x daily
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Projections
Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture
Projections
Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture
Derived from team strength via Poisson model | refreshed 4x daily
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FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.
The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to attack and defence strength values published by FPL. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid.
Use the gameweek selector to see future fixtures. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".