Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. The model takes each team's attack and defence strength (from the official FPL bootstrap data) and a home-advantage multiplier to produce a per-fixture goal expectation, then turns that into a scoreline grid.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UK) so they reflect the latest team-strength data from the FPL API. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team's top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
ARS Fri 20:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Fri 21/08 20:00	1.87 1.87	45% 45%
MUN Sat 12:30	Hull CityHULA	Sat 22/08 12:30	1.87 1.87	35% 35%
NFO Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	25% 25%
IPS Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	15% 15%
SUN Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	15% 15%
LEE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	15% 15%
EVE Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
CRY Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
BRE Sat 17:30	SpursTOTH	Sat 22/08 17:30	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
TOT Sat 17:30	BrentfordBREA	Sat 22/08 17:30	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
BHA Sun 14:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
AVL Sun 14:00	BrightonBHAA	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
MCI Sun 14:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	45% 45%
LIV Sun 16:30	NewcastleNEWA	Sun 23/08 16:30	1.40 1.40	35% 35%
CHE Mon 20:00	FulhamFULA	Mon 24/08 20:00	1.40 1.40	35% 35%
HUL Sat 12:30	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 22/08 12:30	1.05 1.05	15% 15%
NEW Sun 16:30	LiverpoolLIVH	Sun 23/08 16:30	1.05 1.05	25% 25%
FUL Mon 20:00	ChelseaCHEH	Mon 24/08 20:00	1.05 1.05	25% 25%
COV Fri 20:00	ArsenalARSA	Fri 21/08 20:00	0.79 0.79	15% 15%
BOU Sun 14:00	Man CityMCIA	Sun 23/08 14:00	0.79 0.79	25% 25%

	Opponent
ARS Fri 20:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Fri 21/08 20:00	1.87 1.87	45% 45%
MUN Sat 12:30	Hull CityHULA	Sat 22/08 12:30	1.87 1.87	35% 35%
NFO Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	25% 25%
IPS Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	15% 15%
SUN Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.87 1.87	15% 15%
LEE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	15% 15%
EVE Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
CRY Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 22/08 15:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
BRE Sat 17:30	SpursTOTH	Sat 22/08 17:30	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
TOT Sat 17:30	BrentfordBREA	Sat 22/08 17:30	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
BHA Sun 14:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
AVL Sun 14:00	BrightonBHAA	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	25% 25%
MCI Sun 14:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sun 23/08 14:00	1.40 1.40	45% 45%
LIV Sun 16:30	NewcastleNEWA	Sun 23/08 16:30	1.40 1.40	35% 35%
CHE Mon 20:00	FulhamFULA	Mon 24/08 20:00	1.40 1.40	35% 35%
HUL Sat 12:30	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 22/08 12:30	1.05 1.05	15% 15%
NEW Sun 16:30	LiverpoolLIVH	Sun 23/08 16:30	1.05 1.05	25% 25%
FUL Mon 20:00	ChelseaCHEH	Mon 24/08 20:00	1.05 1.05	25% 25%
COV Fri 20:00	ArsenalARSA	Fri 21/08 20:00	0.79 0.79	15% 15%
BOU Sun 14:00	Man CityMCIA	Sun 23/08 14:00	0.79 0.79	25% 25%

FPL Projections — Goals, Clean Sheets & Scorelines

About FPL Projections

FPL Projections — Goals, Clean Sheets & Scorelines