Points against expected points

Every player plotted by xP against Pts, with a fitted line. Above the line is over-delivering; below it, under. Back to the table.

5 players · dashed line is the least-squares fit (Pts ≈ 1.10 × xP − 0.4)

Biggest gaps between points and xP

The twenty players furthest from their expected points, either way.

Player	Pts	xP	P vs xP
ThiagoBRE · FWD	4	13.5	−9.5
João PedroCHE · FWD	21	15.0	+6.0
HavertzARS · FWD	16	11.2	+4.8
IsakLIV · FWD	23	20.3	+2.7
WatkinsAVL · FWD	0	0.0	0.0

About points against expected points

Expected points from underlying stats — xP — turns a player's season of chances into the points those chances would normally return: expected goals times the goal value for the position, expected assists times three, expected clean sheets from expected goals conceded, plus minutes, bonus, defensive actions and cards as recorded.

The fitted line shows the typical relationship across the league. A player far above it has been converting chances or collecting bonus beyond the underlying numbers; a player far below has the chances without the returns, which is often where value hides.

Swap the axes to compare goals with xG, assists with xA, or points with minutes and BPS. Use the club, position and price filters to compare like with like, and highlight any player to find them on the chart.