Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MCI Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 17/10 15:00	3.45 3.45	38% 38%
BHA Sun 14:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sun 18/10 14:00	3.07 3.07	21% 21%
FUL Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 17/10 15:00	2.10 2.10	34% 34%
BRE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 17/10 15:00	1.97 1.97	25% 25%
NEW Sat 17:30	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 17/10 17:30	1.93 1.93	22% 22%
BOU Sun 14:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sun 18/10 14:00	1.75 1.75	38% 38%
CRY Sun 14:00	BrightonBHAA	Sun 18/10 14:00	1.55 1.55	5% 5%
AVL Sat 17:30	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 17/10 17:30	1.49 1.49	14% 14%
LIV Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 17/10 15:00	1.38 1.38	14% 14%
TOT Mon 20:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Mon 19/10 20:00	1.32 1.32	40% 40%
CHE Sat 12:30	EvertonEVEA	Sat 17/10 12:30	1.31 1.31	29% 29%
LEE Sun 14:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sun 18/10 14:00	1.29 1.29	29% 29%
EVE Sat 12:30	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 17/10 12:30	1.25 1.25	27% 27%
MUN Sun 14:00	LeedsLEEA	Sun 18/10 14:00	1.22 1.22	27% 27%
HUL Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 17/10 15:00	1.07 1.07	12% 12%
ARS Sun 16:30	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sun 18/10 16:30	1.00 1.00	68% 68%
IPS Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 17/10 15:00	0.98 0.98	3% 3%
SUN Sun 14:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sun 18/10 14:00	0.97 0.97	17% 17%
COV Mon 20:00	SpursTOTA	Mon 19/10 20:00	0.91 0.91	27% 27%
NFO Sun 16:30	ArsenalARSH	Sun 18/10 16:30	0.38 0.38	37% 37%

About FPL Projections