Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 17:30	SpursTOTH	Sat 10/10 17:30	3.81 3.81	44% 44%
CHE Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 10/10 15:00	2.47 2.47	28% 28%
ARS Sat 12:30	LeedsLEEH	Sat 10/10 12:30	2.02 2.02	64% 64%
MCI Sun 16:30	LiverpoolLIVA	Sun 11/10 16:30	1.99 1.99	27% 27%
SUN Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.95 1.95	22% 22%
IPS Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.68 1.68	40% 40%
BRE Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.63 1.63	37% 37%
NFO Sun 14:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sun 11/10 14:00	1.56 1.56	22% 22%
CRY Sun 14:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sun 11/10 14:00	1.52 1.52	21% 21%
BHA Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.50 1.50	14% 14%
EVE Sun 14:00	Hull CityHULA	Sun 11/10 14:00	1.48 1.48	30% 30%
LIV Sun 16:30	Man CityMCIH	Sun 11/10 16:30	1.31 1.31	14% 14%
BOU Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.29 1.29	8% 8%
COV Mon 20:00	NewcastleNEWH	Mon 12/10 20:00	1.22 1.22	42% 42%
HUL Sun 14:00	EvertonEVEH	Sun 11/10 14:00	1.20 1.20	23% 23%
AVL Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 10/10 15:00	1.00 1.00	20% 20%
FUL Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 10/10 15:00	0.91 0.91	19% 19%
NEW Mon 20:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Mon 12/10 20:00	0.87 0.87	29% 29%
TOT Sat 17:30	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 10/10 17:30	0.82 0.82	2% 2%
LEE Sat 12:30	ArsenalARSA	Sat 10/10 12:30	0.45 0.45	13% 13%

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