FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 5: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
BrentfordBRE
Fri 20:00
CHEH
Man CityMCI
Sun 14:00
SUNH
LeedsLEE
Sun 14:00
CRYH
EvertonEVE
Sat 15:00
IPSH
NewcastleNEW
Sat 15:00
HULH
FulhamFUL
Sun 16:30
MUNH
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sun 14:00
LEEA
Man UtdMUN
Sun 16:30
FULA
LiverpoolLIV
Sun 14:00
BOUA
SpursTOT
Sat 12:30
AVLH
BournemouthBOU
Sun 14:00
LIVH
ArsenalARS
Sat 15:00
BHAA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sat 17:30
COVH
Ipswich TownIPS
Sat 15:00
EVEA
ChelseaCHE
Fri 20:00
BREA
Hull CityHUL
Sat 15:00
NEWA
Aston VillaAVL
Sat 12:30
TOTA
BrightonBHA
Sat 15:00
ARSH
SunderlandSUN
Sun 14:00
MCIA
Coventry CityCOV
Sat 17:30
NFOA

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".