FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 4: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sat 15:00
IPSH
LiverpoolLIV
Sat 15:00
FULH
ChelseaCHE
Sat 15:00
HULH
Man UtdMUN
Sun 16:30
MCIH
Man CityMCI
Sun 16:30
MUNA
Ipswich TownIPS
Sat 15:00
CRYA
BrightonBHA
Sun 14:00
COVA
LeedsLEE
Mon 20:00
NEWH
BournemouthBOU
Sat 15:00
BREH
Coventry CityCOV
Sun 14:00
BHAH
BrentfordBRE
Sat 15:00
BOUA
FulhamFUL
Sat 15:00
LIVA
SpursTOT
Sat 17:30
EVEH
EvertonEVE
Sat 17:30
TOTA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sat 15:00
AVLA
ArsenalARS
Sat 20:00
SUNA
Aston VillaAVL
Sat 15:00
NFOH
Hull CityHUL
Sat 15:00
CHEA
NewcastleNEW
Mon 20:00
LEEA
SunderlandSUN
Sat 20:00
ARSH

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".