Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sun 16:30	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sun 27/12 16:30	2.78 2.78	31% 31%
FUL Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 26/12 15:00	2.60 2.60	11% 11%
MCI Sat 20:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 26/12 20:00	2.59 2.59	35% 35%
BHA Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 26/12 15:00	2.20 2.20	7% 7%
LIV Sat 17:30	Hull CityHULA	Sat 26/12 17:30	1.94 1.94	43% 43%
ARS Sun 19:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sun 27/12 19:00	1.85 1.85	57% 57%
LEE Sat 12:30	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 26/12 12:30	1.39 1.39	34% 34%
CHE Sun 14:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sun 27/12 14:00	1.32 1.32	29% 29%
TOT Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 26/12 15:00	1.26 1.26	28% 28%
BOU Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 26/12 15:00	1.26 1.26	28% 28%
COV Sun 14:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sun 27/12 14:00	1.25 1.25	27% 27%
IPS Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 26/12 15:00	1.25 1.25	33% 33%
EVE Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 26/12 15:00	1.23 1.23	37% 37%
NFO Sun 16:30	Man UtdMUNA	Sun 27/12 16:30	1.16 1.16	6% 6%
BRE Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 26/12 15:00	1.11 1.11	29% 29%
AVL Sat 12:30	LeedsLEEH	Sat 26/12 12:30	1.07 1.07	25% 25%
NEW Sat 20:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 26/12 20:00	1.06 1.06	8% 8%
SUN Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 26/12 15:00	0.98 0.98	29% 29%
HUL Sat 17:30	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 26/12 17:30	0.85 0.85	14% 14%
CRY Sun 19:00	ArsenalARSH	Sun 27/12 19:00	0.56 0.56	16% 16%

About FPL Projections