FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 17: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Aston Villa vs LeedsUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 12:30

TeamGoalsCS%
Aston VillaAVL
Aston Villa projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Aston Villa clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
LeedsLEE
Leeds projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Leeds clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-1
13%
0-1
12%
1-0
9%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Ipswich Town vs BrentfordUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%
Ipswich TownIPS
Ipswich Town projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Ipswich Town clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
BrentfordBRE
Brentford projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Brentford clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-1
13%
1-0
12%
0-1
10%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Spurs vs BournemouthUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%
SpursTOT
Spurs projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Spurs clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
BournemouthBOU
Bournemouth projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Bournemouth clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-1
13%
1-0
10%
0-1
10%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Everton vs SunderlandUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%
EvertonEVE
Everton projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Everton clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
SunderlandSUN
Sunderland projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Sunderland clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-0
13%
1-1
13%
0-0
11%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Fulham vs BrightonUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 15:00

TeamGoalsCS%
FulhamFUL
Fulham projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Fulham clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
BrightonBHA
Brighton projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Brighton clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
2-2
7%
2-1
6%
3-2
6%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Hull City vs LiverpoolUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 17:30

TeamGoalsCS%
Hull CityHUL
Hull City projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Hull City clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
LiverpoolLIV
Liverpool projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Liverpool clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
0-1
12%
0-2
12%
1-1
10%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Newcastle vs Man CityUpcoming

Sat 26 Dec · 20:00

TeamGoalsCS%
NewcastleNEW
Newcastle projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Newcastle clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
Man CityMCI
Man City projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Man City clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-2
9%
0-2
9%
1-3
8%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Coventry City vs ChelseaUpcoming

Sun 27 Dec · 14:00

TeamGoalsCS%
Coventry CityCOV
Coventry City projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Coventry City clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
ChelseaCHE
Chelsea projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Chelsea clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
1-1
13%
0-1
10%
1-0
10%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Man Utd vs Nott'm ForestUpcoming

Sun 27 Dec · 16:30

TeamGoalsCS%
Man UtdMUN
Man Utd projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Man Utd clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
Nott'm ForestNFO
Nott'm Forest projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Nott'm Forest clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
2-1
9%
3-1
8%
2-0
8%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%
Crystal Palace vs ArsenalUpcoming

Sun 27 Dec · 19:00

TeamGoalsCS%
Crystal PalaceCRY
Crystal Palace projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Crystal Palace clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
ArsenalARS
Arsenal projected goals, change since yesterday: unchanged 0.0
Arsenal clean-sheet odds, change in percentage points since yesterday: unchanged 0
0-1
17%
0-2
15%
0-3
9%

most likely

Updated 21:19 · xG weight 60% / 60%

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".