Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 07/11 15:00	3.66 3.66	35% 35%
BHA Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 07/11 15:00	2.35 2.35	22% 22%
LEE Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 07/11 15:00	2.14 2.14	44% 44%
ARS Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 07/11 15:00	2.11 2.11	75% 75%
LIV Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 07/11 15:00	2.05 2.05	28% 28%
FUL Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 07/11 15:00	2.00 2.00	33% 33%
SUN Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.55 1.55	31% 31%
BRE Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.52 1.52	10% 10%
IPS Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.49 1.49	43% 43%
EVE Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.44 1.44	43% 43%
MCI Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.32 1.32	47% 47%
CRY Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.29 1.29	13% 13%
CHE Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.16 1.16	21% 21%
NEW Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.12 1.12	13% 13%
AVL Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 07/11 15:00	1.04 1.04	3% 3%
BOU Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 07/11 15:00	0.85 0.85	22% 22%
COV Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 07/11 15:00	0.85 0.85	24% 24%
TOT Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 07/11 15:00	0.83 0.83	12% 12%
NFO Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 07/11 15:00	0.75 0.75	27% 27%
HUL Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 07/11 15:00	0.29 0.29	12% 12%

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