FPL projected points by player

Gameweek 4: every player’s projected points, from their own rates and their fixture’s expected goals. See the fixture projections.

#Player	Opponent	Price £m	Owned %	Exp. min	Goal %	Assist %	Team CS %	Projected pts
1BarkleyAVL · MID	NFO (H)	5.0	0.3	80	10%	6%	29%	3.2 3.2
2KamaraAVL · MID	NFO (H)	5.0	0.3	90	5%	6%	29%	3.1 3.1
3George HemmingsAVL · MID	NFO (H)	4.5	1.3	78	6%	6%	29%	2.9 2.9
4AlyssonAVL · MID	NFO (H)	5.0	0.0	14	2%	1%	0%	1.1 1.1
5BogardeAVL · MID	NFO (H)	5.0	0.1	5	1%	1%	0%	0.4 0.4
6BurrowesAVL · MID	NFO (H)	4.5	0.7	0	0%	0%	0%	0.0 0.0
7OnanaAVL · MID	NFO (H)	5.0	0.0	0	0%	0%	0%	0.0 0.0

About these projections

Every number on this page is a forecast for one gameweek. It starts from a player’s own per-90 rates over the season so far — expected goals, expected assists, defensive actions, saves, bonus points and cards — shrunk toward the median for their position so a player with two appearances is not treated as a known quantity.

Those rates are then scaled by the fixture. The attacking terms move with how many goals the model expects that club to score in this match compared with its own normal, while clean sheets and goals conceded read the opposition’s expected goals directly. Minutes are modelled separately: the chance of starting, the chance of coming on, and the chance of reaching sixty minutes, all scaled by FPL’s own availability flag.

Projected points are the sum of the nine FPL scoring terms. They are an ordering tool, not a prediction of an exact score: use them to compare candidates for the same slot, then check the fixture, the minutes and the price for yourself.