Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MCI Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 31/10 15:00	2.81 2.81	28% 28%
BRE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 31/10 15:00	2.32 2.32	35% 35%
NEW Mon 20:00	EvertonEVEH	Mon 02/11 20:00	1.77 1.77	19% 19%
CHE Sat 12:30	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 31/10 12:30	1.73 1.73	26% 26%
BOU Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.73 1.73	28% 28%
EVE Mon 20:00	NewcastleNEWA	Mon 02/11 20:00	1.67 1.67	17% 17%
HUL Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.67 1.67	20% 20%
CRY Sat 17:30	SpursTOTA	Sat 31/10 17:30	1.66 1.66	25% 25%
IPS Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.62 1.62	19% 19%
ARS Sun 16:30	LiverpoolLIVA	Sun 01/11 16:30	1.51 1.51	52% 52%
TOT Sat 17:30	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 31/10 17:30	1.37 1.37	19% 19%
AVL Sat 20:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 31/10 20:00	1.34 1.34	26% 26%
FUL Sat 20:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 31/10 20:00	1.34 1.34	26% 26%
MUN Sat 12:30	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 31/10 12:30	1.33 1.33	18% 18%
BHA Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.29 1.29	6% 6%
LEE Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.27 1.27	18% 18%
COV Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.24 1.24	37% 37%
NFO Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.05 1.05	10% 10%
SUN Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 31/10 15:00	1.00 1.00	29% 29%
LIV Sun 16:30	ArsenalARSH	Sun 01/11 16:30	0.66 0.66	22% 22%

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