FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 8: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
Man UtdMUN
Sun 14:00
BOUH
ChelseaCHE
Sat 17:30
TOTH
LiverpoolLIV
Sun 14:00
BHAH
ArsenalARS
Sat 15:00
EVEH
Man CityMCI
Sat 12:30
AVLA
BrentfordBRE
Sun 14:00
HULA
BrightonBHA
Sun 14:00
LIVA
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sun 14:00
NEWH
Coventry CityCOV
Sat 15:00
FULH
SunderlandSUN
Sun 16:30
LEEH
Ipswich TownIPS
Fri 20:00
NFOH
FulhamFUL
Sat 15:00
COVA
BournemouthBOU
Sun 14:00
MUNA
NewcastleNEW
Sun 14:00
CRYA
LeedsLEE
Sun 16:30
SUNA
Hull CityHUL
Sun 14:00
BREH
SpursTOT
Sat 17:30
CHEA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Fri 20:00
IPSA
Aston VillaAVL
Sat 12:30
MCIH
EvertonEVE
Sat 15:00
ARSA

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".