FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 38: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
Man UtdMUN
Sun 16:00
FULH
ArsenalARS
Sun 16:00
BHAH
LiverpoolLIV
Sun 16:00
BOUH
ChelseaCHE
Sun 16:00
BREH
LeedsLEE
Sun 16:00
CRYA
BrentfordBRE
Sun 16:00
CHEA
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sun 16:00
LEEH
Man CityMCI
Sun 16:00
SUNA
Ipswich TownIPS
Sun 16:00
EVEH
Aston VillaAVL
Sun 16:00
TOTH
BournemouthBOU
Sun 16:00
LIVA
FulhamFUL
Sun 16:00
MUNA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sun 16:00
COVA
Coventry CityCOV
Sun 16:00
NFOH
NewcastleNEW
Sun 16:00
HULA
Hull CityHUL
Sun 16:00
NEWH
SunderlandSUN
Sun 16:00
MCIH
SpursTOT
Sun 16:00
AVLA
EvertonEVE
Sun 16:00
IPSA
BrightonBHA
Sun 16:00
ARSA

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".