Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 15/05 15:00	2.94 2.94	27% 27%
CHE Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 15/05 15:00	2.52 2.52	28% 28%
BHA Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 15/05 15:00	2.27 2.27	13% 13%
CRY Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 15/05 15:00	2.07 2.07	10% 10%
ARS Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.91 1.91	67% 67%
LIV Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.78 1.78	19% 19%
SUN Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.69 1.69	36% 36%
BRE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.67 1.67	17% 17%
COV Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.59 1.59	44% 44%
FUL Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.59 1.59	27% 27%
HUL Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.33 1.33	20% 20%
MCI Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.32 1.32	40% 40%
LEE Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.30 1.30	5% 5%
EVE Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.29 1.29	8% 8%
AVL Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.07 1.07	40% 40%
BOU Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 15/05 15:00	1.03 1.03	18% 18%
NEW Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 15/05 15:00	0.92 0.92	34% 34%
IPS Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 15/05 15:00	0.92 0.92	27% 27%
TOT Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 15/05 15:00	0.82 0.82	20% 20%
NFO Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 15/05 15:00	0.40 0.40	15% 15%

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