Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
FUL Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 08/05 15:00	3.19 3.19	19% 19%
BRE Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 08/05 15:00	3.06 3.06	39% 39%
BHA Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 08/05 15:00	2.55 2.55	37% 37%
NEW Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.82 1.82	30% 30%
MCI Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.75 1.75	31% 31%
IPS Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.67 1.67	4% 4%
CHE Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.41 1.41	32% 32%
ARS Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.40 1.40	56% 56%
BOU Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.36 1.36	31% 31%
NFO Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.33 1.33	32% 32%
EVE Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.28 1.28	44% 44%
COV Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.21 1.21	16% 16%
MUN Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.18 1.18	26% 26%
LIV Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.16 1.16	17% 17%
TOT Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.15 1.15	24% 24%
CRY Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 08/05 15:00	1.13 1.13	26% 26%
SUN Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 08/05 15:00	0.99 0.99	8% 8%
AVL Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 08/05 15:00	0.94 0.94	5% 5%
HUL Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 08/05 15:00	0.82 0.82	28% 28%
LEE Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 08/05 15:00	0.57 0.57	25% 25%

About FPL Projections