Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
ARS Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 01/05 15:00	2.62 2.62	75% 75%
BHA Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 01/05 15:00	2.39 2.39	31% 31%
FUL Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 01/05 15:00	2.29 2.29	22% 22%
MCI Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 01/05 15:00	2.03 2.03	31% 31%
CRY Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 01/05 15:00	2.00 2.00	25% 25%
LIV Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.95 1.95	24% 24%
EVE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.52 1.52	10% 10%
SUN Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.51 1.51	47% 47%
BOU Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.48 1.48	31% 31%
CHE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.44 1.44	14% 14%
AVL Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.40 1.40	14% 14%
IPS Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.34 1.34	39% 39%
MUN Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.21 1.21	38% 38%
HUL Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.18 1.18	23% 23%
NFO Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.16 1.16	9% 9%
BRE Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 01/05 15:00	1.16 1.16	13% 13%
COV Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 01/05 15:00	0.96 0.96	30% 30%
LEE Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 01/05 15:00	0.95 0.95	26% 26%
NEW Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 01/05 15:00	0.76 0.76	22% 22%
TOT Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 01/05 15:00	0.28 0.28	7% 7%

About FPL Projections