FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 33: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

This season's xG carries 60% of the weight after 3 matches; the rest is last season's form.
Opponent
Man UtdMUN
Sat 15:00
CRYH
BrentfordBRE
Sat 15:00
FULH
NewcastleNEW
Sat 15:00
IPSH
Man CityMCI
Sat 15:00
CHEA
Ipswich TownIPS
Sat 15:00
NEWA
BrightonBHA
Sat 15:00
EVEA
EvertonEVE
Sat 15:00
BHAH
LiverpoolLIV
Sat 15:00
LEEA
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sat 15:00
MUNA
ChelseaCHE
Sat 15:00
MCIH
ArsenalARS
Sat 15:00
BOUA
LeedsLEE
Sat 15:00
LIVH
Aston VillaAVL
Sat 15:00
COVH
SpursTOT
Sat 15:00
HULH
FulhamFUL
Sat 15:00
BREA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sat 15:00
SUNH
Coventry CityCOV
Sat 15:00
AVLA
Hull CityHUL
Sat 15:00
TOTA
SunderlandSUN
Sat 15:00
NFOA
BournemouthBOU
Sat 15:00
ARSH

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".