Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MCI Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.65 2.65	31% 31%
BHA Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.58 2.58	27% 27%
ARS Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.52 2.52	70% 70%
BRE Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.45 2.45	31% 31%
FUL Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.03 2.03	28% 28%
NEW Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 17/04 15:00	2.01 2.01	31% 31%
EVE Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.36 1.36	31% 31%
CHE Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.31 1.31	8% 8%
SUN Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.29 1.29	13% 13%
HUL Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.24 1.24	34% 34%
CRY Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.18 1.18	7% 7%
LEE Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.17 1.17	9% 9%
TOT Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.17 1.17	13% 13%
BOU Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.16 1.16	26% 26%
LIV Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.11 1.11	42% 42%
COV Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.08 1.08	29% 29%
IPS Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 17/04 15:00	1.05 1.05	41% 41%
MUN Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 17/04 15:00	0.88 0.88	35% 35%
NFO Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 17/04 15:00	0.88 0.88	33% 33%
AVL Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 17/04 15:00	0.36 0.36	8% 8%

About FPL Projections