Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 10/04 15:00	3.07 3.07	44% 44%
CHE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 10/04 15:00	2.78 2.78	25% 25%
SUN Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 10/04 15:00	2.40 2.40	32% 32%
LIV Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.90 1.90	39% 39%
CRY Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.83 1.83	21% 21%
BHA Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.81 1.81	25% 25%
MCI Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.77 1.77	31% 31%
BRE Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.63 1.63	35% 35%
EVE Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.57 1.57	16% 16%
LEE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.56 1.56	31% 31%
ARS Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.38 1.38	65% 65%
AVL Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.38 1.38	16% 16%
FUL Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.38 1.38	6% 6%
BOU Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.19 1.19	17% 17%
NFO Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.18 1.18	21% 21%
IPS Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.13 1.13	9% 9%
TOT Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 10/04 15:00	1.05 1.05	20% 20%
NEW Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 10/04 15:00	0.95 0.95	15% 15%
HUL Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 10/04 15:00	0.82 0.82	5% 5%
COV Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 10/04 15:00	0.43 0.43	25% 25%

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