Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BHA Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 20/03 15:00	2.97 2.97	43% 43%
BRE Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 20/03 15:00	2.74 2.74	35% 35%
ARS Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 20/03 15:00	2.04 2.04	71% 71%
LIV Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.99 1.99	20% 20%
LEE Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.86 1.86	21% 21%
MCI Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.71 1.71	40% 40%
CHE Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.67 1.67	34% 34%
IPS Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.63 1.63	32% 32%
FUL Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.61 1.61	14% 14%
EVE Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.58 1.58	44% 44%
NEW Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.55 1.55	16% 16%
NFO Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.36 1.36	47% 47%
CRY Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.13 1.13	20% 20%
HUL Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.08 1.08	19% 19%
BOU Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 20/03 15:00	1.06 1.06	6% 6%
MUN Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 20/03 15:00	0.92 0.92	18% 18%
COV Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 20/03 15:00	0.85 0.85	5% 5%
TOT Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 20/03 15:00	0.81 0.81	21% 21%
AVL Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 20/03 15:00	0.76 0.76	26% 26%
SUN Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 20/03 15:00	0.34 0.34	13% 13%

About FPL Projections