Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 13/03 15:00	3.35 3.35	31% 31%
LIV Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 13/03 15:00	3.03 3.03	24% 24%
LEE Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 13/03 15:00	2.13 2.13	18% 18%
CRY Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 13/03 15:00	2.02 2.02	19% 19%
MCI Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.82 1.82	43% 43%
BOU Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.73 1.73	43% 43%
BHA Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.72 1.72	12% 12%
FUL Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.68 1.68	13% 13%
ARS Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.52 1.52	46% 46%
SUN Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.41 1.41	26% 26%
IPS Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.41 1.41	5% 5%
BRE Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.34 1.34	24% 24%
NFO Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.25 1.25	34% 34%
EVE Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.17 1.17	4% 4%
AVL Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.12 1.12	42% 42%
TOT Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 13/03 15:00	1.07 1.07	29% 29%
HUL Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 13/03 15:00	0.88 0.88	33% 33%
NEW Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 13/03 15:00	0.84 0.84	18% 18%
COV Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 13/03 15:00	0.84 0.84	16% 16%
CHE Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 13/03 15:00	0.77 0.77	22% 22%

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