Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BRE Wed 20:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Wed 03/03 20:00	3.89 3.89	31% 31%
BHA Wed 20:00	FulhamFULH	Wed 03/03 20:00	3.17 3.17	29% 29%
CHE Wed 20:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Wed 03/03 20:00	2.60 2.60	39% 39%
MCI Wed 20:00	EvertonEVEH	Wed 03/03 20:00	2.48 2.48	41% 41%
ARS Wed 20:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Wed 03/03 20:00	2.46 2.46	58% 58%
LIV Wed 20:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Wed 03/03 20:00	2.38 2.38	32% 32%
BOU Wed 20:00	SpursTOTH	Wed 03/03 20:00	2.25 2.25	45% 45%
LEE Wed 20:00	Hull CityHULH	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.73 1.73	44% 44%
FUL Wed 20:00	BrightonBHAA	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.25 1.25	4% 4%
SUN Wed 20:00	Man UtdMUNH	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.19 1.19	34% 34%
IPS Wed 20:00	BrentfordBREA	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.16 1.16	2% 2%
AVL Wed 20:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.15 1.15	9% 9%
NFO Wed 20:00	NewcastleNEWH	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.09 1.09	53% 53%
MUN Wed 20:00	SunderlandSUNA	Wed 03/03 20:00	1.07 1.07	31% 31%
COV Wed 20:00	ChelseaCHEA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.94 0.94	7% 7%
EVE Wed 20:00	Man CityMCIA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.89 0.89	8% 8%
HUL Wed 20:00	LeedsLEEA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.83 0.83	18% 18%
TOT Wed 20:00	BournemouthBOUA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.80 0.80	11% 11%
NEW Wed 20:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.63 0.63	34% 34%
CRY Wed 20:00	ArsenalARSA	Wed 03/03 20:00	0.54 0.54	9% 9%

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