Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MCI Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 27/02 15:00	2.29 2.29	48% 48%
BRE Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 27/02 15:00	2.17 2.17	24% 24%
FUL Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 27/02 15:00	2.01 2.01	18% 18%
IPS Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.73 1.73	29% 29%
LEE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.69 1.69	13% 13%
LIV Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.64 1.64	41% 41%
CRY Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.62 1.62	27% 27%
NEW Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.45 1.45	11% 11%
CHE Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.41 1.41	33% 33%
ARS Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.37 1.37	36% 36%
COV Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.37 1.37	31% 31%
SUN Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.33 1.33	20% 20%
BHA Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.24 1.24	18% 18%
BOU Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.18 1.18	25% 25%
NFO Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.16 1.16	31% 31%
EVE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.16 1.16	31% 31%
AVL Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.09 1.09	24% 24%
MUN Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 27/02 15:00	1.02 1.02	25% 25%
TOT Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 27/02 15:00	0.90 0.90	19% 19%
HUL Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 27/02 15:00	0.72 0.72	10% 10%

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