Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
CHE Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 20/02 15:00	3.51 3.51	24% 24%
BHA Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 20/02 15:00	3.27 3.27	44% 44%
BRE Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.88 2.88	46% 46%
ARS Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.53 2.53	65% 65%
MCI Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.17 2.17	52% 52%
BOU Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.11 2.11	22% 22%
LEE Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.06 2.06	35% 35%
LIV Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 20/02 15:00	2.00 2.00	41% 41%
SUN Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 20/02 15:00	1.72 1.72	36% 36%
CRY Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 20/02 15:00	1.51 1.51	12% 12%
IPS Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 20/02 15:00	1.41 1.41	3% 3%
AVL Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 20/02 15:00	1.06 1.06	13% 13%
EVE Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 20/02 15:00	1.03 1.03	18% 18%
HUL Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.90 0.90	14% 14%
MUN Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.88 0.88	42% 42%
NFO Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.86 0.86	42% 42%
TOT Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.82 0.82	4% 4%
COV Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.77 0.77	6% 6%
NEW Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.66 0.66	11% 11%
FUL Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 20/02 15:00	0.44 0.44	8% 8%

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