Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Wed 20:00	BrightonBHAH	Wed 10/02 20:00	3.79 3.79	18% 18%
BRE Wed 20:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Wed 10/02 20:00	2.04 2.04	22% 22%
MCI Wed 20:00	SpursTOTA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.94 1.94	46% 46%
FUL Wed 20:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.90 1.90	22% 22%
CHE Wed 20:00	NewcastleNEWA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.88 1.88	21% 21%
BHA Wed 20:00	Man UtdMUNA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.69 1.69	2% 2%
NEW Wed 20:00	ChelseaCHEH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.58 1.58	15% 15%
LIV Wed 20:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.54 1.54	37% 37%
NFO Wed 20:00	FulhamFULA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.51 1.51	15% 15%
CRY Wed 20:00	BrentfordBREH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.50 1.50	13% 13%
LEE Wed 20:00	EvertonEVEA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.29 1.29	29% 29%
BOU Wed 20:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.25 1.25	30% 30%
SUN Wed 20:00	Hull CityHULA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.25 1.25	34% 34%
EVE Wed 20:00	LeedsLEEH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.22 1.22	27% 27%
AVL Wed 20:00	BournemouthBOUH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.19 1.19	29% 29%
HUL Wed 20:00	SunderlandSUNH	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.07 1.07	29% 29%
ARS Wed 20:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Wed 10/02 20:00	1.00 1.00	63% 63%
COV Wed 20:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Wed 10/02 20:00	0.98 0.98	21% 21%
TOT Wed 20:00	Man CityMCIH	Wed 10/02 20:00	0.77 0.77	14% 14%
IPS Wed 20:00	ArsenalARSH	Wed 10/02 20:00	0.46 0.46	37% 37%

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