Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 06/02 15:00	3.00 3.00	27% 27%
BHA Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 06/02 15:00	2.64 2.64	44% 44%
MCI Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 06/02 15:00	2.35 2.35	25% 25%
CRY Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.89 1.89	32% 32%
SUN Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.89 1.89	40% 40%
LEE Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.84 1.84	31% 31%
IPS Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.74 1.74	55% 55%
ARS Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.62 1.62	59% 59%
FUL Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.38 1.38	10% 10%
CHE Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.31 1.31	5% 5%
EVE Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.22 1.22	42% 42%
BOU Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.19 1.19	16% 16%
COV Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.14 1.14	15% 15%
BRE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.11 1.11	36% 36%
NFO Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 06/02 15:00	1.02 1.02	33% 33%
AVL Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 06/02 15:00	0.92 0.92	15% 15%
NEW Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 06/02 15:00	0.86 0.86	30% 30%
HUL Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 06/02 15:00	0.82 0.82	7% 7%
TOT Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 06/02 15:00	0.60 0.60	18% 18%
LIV Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 06/02 15:00	0.53 0.53	20% 20%

About FPL Projections