Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BHA Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 30/01 15:00	2.42 2.42	14% 14%
LIV Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 30/01 15:00	2.18 2.18	28% 28%
BOU Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 30/01 15:00	2.17 2.17	29% 29%
CHE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 30/01 15:00	2.09 2.09	28% 28%
NEW Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 30/01 15:00	2.00 2.00	9% 9%
CRY Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.96 1.96	28% 28%
BRE Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.92 1.92	34% 34%
AVL Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.70 1.70	25% 25%
IPS Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.37 1.37	18% 18%
LEE Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.31 1.31	29% 29%
EVE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.29 1.29	11% 11%
HUL Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.28 1.28	14% 14%
NFO Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.28 1.28	12% 12%
COV Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.23 1.23	27% 27%
FUL Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.22 1.22	11% 11%
TOT Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.14 1.14	35% 35%
MUN Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.09 1.09	15% 15%
SUN Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.06 1.06	32% 32%
ARS Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 30/01 15:00	1.05 1.05	47% 47%
MCI Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 30/01 15:00	0.76 0.76	35% 35%

About FPL Projections