Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
FUL Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 23/01 15:00	2.51 2.51	26% 26%
MUN Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 23/01 15:00	2.35 2.35	22% 22%
CRY Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 23/01 15:00	2.08 2.08	33% 33%
ARS Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 23/01 15:00	2.01 2.01	74% 74%
MCI Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.81 1.81	18% 18%
SUN Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.78 1.78	47% 47%
BHA Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.73 1.73	16% 16%
LEE Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.69 1.69	26% 26%
LIV Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.53 1.53	9% 9%
BRE Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.51 1.51	32% 32%
IPS Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.40 1.40	55% 55%
AVL Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.36 1.36	8% 8%
CHE Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.33 1.33	19% 19%
NFO Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.22 1.22	43% 43%
EVE Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.14 1.14	22% 22%
TOT Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 23/01 15:00	1.10 1.10	12% 12%
BOU Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 23/01 15:00	0.85 0.85	29% 29%
COV Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 23/01 15:00	0.75 0.75	17% 17%
HUL Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 23/01 15:00	0.60 0.60	25% 25%
NEW Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 23/01 15:00	0.30 0.30	13% 13%

About FPL Projections