Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BRE Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 16/01 15:00	3.17 3.17	22% 22%
BOU Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 16/01 15:00	2.75 2.75	29% 29%
LIV Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 16/01 15:00	2.32 2.32	18% 18%
CHE Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 16/01 15:00	2.24 2.24	34% 34%
MCI Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 16/01 15:00	2.06 2.06	41% 41%
NEW Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.95 1.95	17% 17%
FUL Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.79 1.79	14% 14%
ARS Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.74 1.74	69% 69%
CRY Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.70 1.70	10% 10%
BHA Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.53 1.53	4% 4%
COV Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.40 1.40	31% 31%
LEE Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.40 1.40	32% 32%
MUN Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.29 1.29	43% 43%
IPS Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.25 1.25	6% 6%
EVE Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.18 1.18	25% 25%
TOT Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.13 1.13	25% 25%
SUN Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 16/01 15:00	1.09 1.09	11% 11%
NFO Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 16/01 15:00	0.89 0.89	13% 13%
AVL Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 16/01 15:00	0.84 0.84	27% 27%
HUL Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 16/01 15:00	0.37 0.37	18% 18%

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