Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Thu 20:00	NewcastleNEWH	Thu 07/01 20:00	2.93 2.93	42% 42%
BHA Tue 19:30	BournemouthBOUH	Tue 05/01 19:30	2.81 2.81	31% 31%
FUL Wed 19:30	SpursTOTH	Wed 06/01 19:30	2.61 2.61	35% 35%
ARS Tue 19:30	BrentfordBREH	Tue 05/01 19:30	1.88 1.88	59% 59%
MCI Wed 20:15	LeedsLEEA	Wed 06/01 20:15	1.83 1.83	32% 32%
CHE Wed 19:30	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Wed 06/01 19:30	1.77 1.77	19% 19%
CRY Wed 19:30	ChelseaCHEH	Wed 06/01 19:30	1.64 1.64	17% 17%
IPS Wed 19:30	Coventry CityCOVH	Wed 06/01 19:30	1.57 1.57	54% 54%
EVE Tue 19:30	Aston VillaAVLH	Tue 05/01 19:30	1.52 1.52	35% 35%
LIV Tue 20:15	SunderlandSUNA	Tue 05/01 20:15	1.35 1.35	30% 30%
SUN Tue 20:15	LiverpoolLIVH	Tue 05/01 20:15	1.21 1.21	26% 26%
BOU Tue 19:30	BrightonBHAA	Tue 05/01 19:30	1.17 1.17	6% 6%
NFO Tue 19:30	Hull CityHULH	Tue 05/01 19:30	1.15 1.15	55% 55%
LEE Wed 20:15	Man CityMCIH	Wed 06/01 20:15	1.13 1.13	16% 16%
TOT Wed 19:30	FulhamFULA	Wed 06/01 19:30	1.06 1.06	7% 7%
AVL Tue 19:30	EvertonEVEA	Tue 05/01 19:30	1.04 1.04	22% 22%
NEW Thu 20:00	Man UtdMUNA	Thu 07/01 20:00	0.86 0.86	5% 5%
COV Wed 19:30	Ipswich TownIPSA	Wed 06/01 19:30	0.62 0.62	21% 21%
HUL Tue 19:30	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Tue 05/01 19:30	0.60 0.60	32% 32%
BRE Tue 19:30	ArsenalARSA	Tue 05/01 19:30	0.53 0.53	15% 15%

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