Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
ARS Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 02/01 15:00	3.20 3.20	64% 64%
BRE Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 02/01 15:00	2.98 2.98	25% 25%
MCI Sun 16:30	SpursTOTH	Sun 03/01 16:30	2.82 2.82	54% 54%
LIV Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 02/01 15:00	2.25 2.25	39% 39%
CHE Sun 14:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sun 03/01 14:00	2.21 2.21	39% 39%
BOU Sat 17:30	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 02/01 17:30	2.16 2.16	36% 36%
BHA Sat 12:30	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 02/01 12:30	1.98 1.98	30% 30%
LEE Fri 20:00	EvertonEVEH	Fri 01/01 20:00	1.88 1.88	30% 30%
SUN Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 02/01 15:00	1.58 1.58	48% 48%
CRY Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 02/01 15:00	1.40 1.40	5% 5%
NFO Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 02/01 15:00	1.37 1.37	40% 40%
MUN Sat 12:30	BrightonBHAA	Sat 02/01 12:30	1.21 1.21	14% 14%
EVE Fri 20:00	LeedsLEEA	Fri 01/01 20:00	1.19 1.19	15% 15%
AVL Sat 17:30	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 02/01 17:30	1.02 1.02	12% 12%
NEW Sun 14:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sun 03/01 14:00	0.95 0.95	11% 11%
COV Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 02/01 15:00	0.93 0.93	11% 11%
FUL Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 02/01 15:00	0.91 0.91	25% 25%
HUL Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 02/01 15:00	0.72 0.72	21% 21%
TOT Sun 16:30	Man CityMCIA	Sun 03/01 16:30	0.62 0.62	6% 6%
IPS Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 02/01 15:00	0.45 0.45	4% 4%

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