Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Wed 19:30	SunderlandSUNH	Wed 30/12 19:30	2.97 2.97	37% 37%
BHA Tue 19:30	SpursTOTA	Tue 29/12 19:30	1.82 1.82	23% 23%
MCI Tue 20:15	EvertonEVEA	Tue 29/12 20:15	1.80 1.80	43% 43%
CRY Wed 19:30	BournemouthBOUH	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.79 1.79	21% 21%
ARS Wed 19:30	FulhamFULA	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.79 1.79	50% 50%
NFO Wed 19:30	NewcastleNEWA	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.66 1.66	23% 23%
LEE Tue 19:30	Hull CityHULA	Tue 29/12 19:30	1.65 1.65	35% 35%
LIV Wed 20:15	Aston VillaAVLA	Wed 30/12 20:15	1.64 1.64	42% 42%
BOU Wed 19:30	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.57 1.57	17% 17%
BRE Wed 19:30	Coventry CityCOVA	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.53 1.53	32% 32%
NEW Wed 19:30	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.47 1.47	19% 19%
TOT Tue 19:30	BrightonBHAH	Tue 29/12 19:30	1.45 1.45	16% 16%
IPS Wed 20:15	ChelseaCHEH	Wed 30/12 20:15	1.37 1.37	38% 38%
COV Wed 19:30	BrentfordBREH	Wed 30/12 19:30	1.14 1.14	22% 22%
HUL Tue 19:30	LeedsLEEH	Tue 29/12 19:30	1.06 1.06	19% 19%
SUN Wed 19:30	Man UtdMUNA	Wed 30/12 19:30	0.99 0.99	5% 5%
CHE Wed 20:15	Ipswich TownIPSA	Wed 30/12 20:15	0.96 0.96	25% 25%
AVL Wed 20:15	LiverpoolLIVH	Wed 30/12 20:15	0.86 0.86	19% 19%
EVE Tue 20:15	Man CityMCIH	Tue 29/12 20:15	0.84 0.84	17% 17%
FUL Wed 19:30	ArsenalARSH	Wed 30/12 19:30	0.70 0.70	17% 17%

About FPL Projections