Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BHA Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 19/12 15:00	4.00 4.00	28% 28%
CHE Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.76 2.76	32% 32%
LIV Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.48 2.48	41% 41%
BRE Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.44 2.44	46% 46%
MCI Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.28 2.28	54% 54%
LEE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.07 2.07	28% 28%
BOU Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 19/12 15:00	2.04 2.04	44% 44%
SUN Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.84 1.84	25% 25%
ARS Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.58 1.58	66% 66%
CRY Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.37 1.37	16% 16%
IPS Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.28 1.28	2% 2%
FUL Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.27 1.27	13% 13%
NFO Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.25 1.25	43% 43%
AVL Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 19/12 15:00	1.15 1.15	6% 6%
TOT Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.90 0.90	8% 8%
EVE Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.85 0.85	29% 29%
COV Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.83 0.83	13% 13%
NEW Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.78 0.78	9% 9%
HUL Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.62 0.62	10% 10%
MUN Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 19/12 15:00	0.42 0.42	21% 21%

About FPL Projections