Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BHA Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 12/12 15:00	2.87 2.87	31% 31%
ARS Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUH	Sat 12/12 15:00	2.25 2.25	67% 67%
MCI Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEH	Sat 12/12 15:00	2.22 2.22	37% 37%
BRE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.98 1.98	15% 15%
LIV Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.91 1.91	24% 24%
FUL Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.87 1.87	14% 14%
MUN Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.62 1.62	28% 28%
COV Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.53 1.53	35% 35%
SUN Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.43 1.43	36% 36%
LEE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.43 1.43	15% 15%
HUL Sat 15:00	SpursTOTH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.37 1.37	36% 36%
IPS Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.33 1.33	53% 53%
CRY Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.26 1.26	20% 20%
EVE Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.17 1.17	6% 6%
AVL Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.05 1.05	22% 22%
TOT Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.03 1.03	25% 25%
NFO Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.03 1.03	24% 24%
CHE Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 12/12 15:00	1.00 1.00	11% 11%
NEW Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSA	Sat 12/12 15:00	0.63 0.63	26% 26%
BOU Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSA	Sat 12/12 15:00	0.41 0.41	11% 11%

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