Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
MUN Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVH	Sat 05/12 15:00	3.45 3.45	43% 43%
LEE Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 05/12 15:00	2.62 2.62	27% 27%
BOU Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.81 1.81	45% 45%
CHE Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.78 1.78	19% 19%
LIV Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.69 1.69	17% 17%
BRE Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.68 1.68	20% 20%
CRY Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.66 1.66	27% 27%
MCI Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.63 1.63	19% 19%
NEW Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.57 1.57	24% 24%
EVE Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.53 1.53	29% 29%
ARS Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.48 1.48	68% 68%
SUN Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.41 1.41	21% 21%
NFO Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.41 1.41	29% 29%
AVL Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.30 1.30	19% 19%
IPS Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.30 1.30	7% 7%
FUL Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.25 1.25	22% 22%
BHA Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOA	Sat 05/12 15:00	1.23 1.23	24% 24%
COV Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNA	Sat 05/12 15:00	0.85 0.85	3% 3%
HUL Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 05/12 15:00	0.80 0.80	16% 16%
TOT Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 05/12 15:00	0.39 0.39	23% 23%

About FPL Projections