Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
CHE Wed 20:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Wed 02/12 20:00	2.69 2.69	18% 18%
BOU Wed 20:00	BrightonBHAH	Wed 02/12 20:00	2.24 2.24	19% 19%
MCI Wed 20:00	LeedsLEEH	Wed 02/12 20:00	2.18 2.18	37% 37%
COV Wed 20:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.94 1.94	28% 28%
LIV Wed 20:00	SunderlandSUNH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.93 1.93	34% 34%
MUN Wed 20:00	NewcastleNEWA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.73 1.73	30% 30%
CRY Wed 20:00	ChelseaCHEA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.70 1.70	7% 7%
BHA Wed 20:00	BournemouthBOUA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.65 1.65	11% 11%
NFO Wed 20:00	Hull CityHULA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.47 1.47	37% 37%
TOT Wed 20:00	FulhamFULH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.41 1.41	26% 26%
FUL Wed 20:00	SpursTOTA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.34 1.34	24% 24%
IPS Wed 20:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.29 1.29	14% 14%
EVE Wed 20:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.25 1.25	30% 30%
ARS Wed 20:00	BrentfordBREA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.24 1.24	43% 43%
AVL Wed 20:00	EvertonEVEH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.22 1.22	29% 29%
NEW Wed 20:00	Man UtdMUNH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.21 1.21	18% 18%
SUN Wed 20:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.09 1.09	15% 15%
HUL Wed 20:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Wed 02/12 20:00	1.00 1.00	23% 23%
LEE Wed 20:00	Man CityMCIA	Wed 02/12 20:00	0.99 0.99	11% 11%
BRE Wed 20:00	ArsenalARSH	Wed 02/12 20:00	0.85 0.85	29% 29%

About FPL Projections