Question 1

How are FPL projections calculated?

Accepted Answer

FPLWatch projections derive expected goals, clean-sheet probabilities, and the most-likely scorelines for each fixture using a Poisson model. Each club's attack and defence rating comes from a blend of this season's rolling expected goals (xG) over its last ten matches and last season's form, moving fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage multiplier nudges the home side's expected goals upward, and the result is turned into a per-fixture scoreline grid; a nightly job then scores every finished fixture against what actually happened.

Question 2

How often are projections updated?

Accepted Answer

Projections refresh four times a day (06:00, 12:00, 18:00, 22:00 UTC) so they reflect the latest rolling xG data. Each refresh writes a new snapshot, building up a rolling history that powers trend analysis.

Question 3

Are these the same as bookmaker odds?

Accepted Answer

No. These projections are derived from xG-style team strength data — they do not include real-time inputs like injuries, weather, or motivation that bookmakers price in. They're intended as a quick relative comparison across fixtures, not as betting advice.

Question 4

How should I use clean-sheet projections for FPL?

Accepted Answer

Higher clean-sheet probabilities mean more potential CS bonus points for goalkeepers, defenders, and wing-back midfielders. Pair the CS column with each team’s top picks to identify defensive assets who benefit most from favourable fixtures.

	Opponent
BRE Sat 15:00	EvertonEVEH	Sat 21/11 15:00	2.79 2.79	35% 35%
MCI Sat 15:00	FulhamFULH	Sat 21/11 15:00	2.73 2.73	39% 39%
CHE Sat 15:00	LeedsLEEH	Sat 21/11 15:00	2.22 2.22	24% 24%
BHA Sat 15:00	Hull CityHULA	Sat 21/11 15:00	2.15 2.15	26% 26%
ARS Sat 15:00	NewcastleNEWA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.97 1.97	58% 58%
TOT Sat 15:00	Ipswich TownIPSH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.79 1.79	25% 25%
BOU Sat 15:00	Nott'm ForestNFOH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.64 1.64	32% 32%
CRY Sat 15:00	Coventry CityCOVA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.56 1.56	22% 22%
LIV Sat 15:00	Man UtdMUNH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.50 1.50	27% 27%
COV Sat 15:00	Crystal PalaceCRYH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.49 1.49	21% 21%
LEE Sat 15:00	ChelseaCHEA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.43 1.43	11% 11%
IPS Sat 15:00	SpursTOTA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.38 1.38	17% 17%
HUL Sat 15:00	BrightonBHAH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.36 1.36	12% 12%
MUN Sat 15:00	LiverpoolLIVA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.32 1.32	22% 22%
NFO Sat 15:00	BournemouthBOUA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.13 1.13	19% 19%
AVL Sat 15:00	SunderlandSUNH	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.08 1.08	35% 35%
SUN Sat 15:00	Aston VillaAVLA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.06 1.06	34% 34%
EVE Sat 15:00	BrentfordBREA	Sat 21/11 15:00	1.06 1.06	6% 6%
FUL Sat 15:00	Man CityMCIA	Sat 21/11 15:00	0.95 0.95	7% 7%
NEW Sat 15:00	ArsenalARSH	Sat 21/11 15:00	0.54 0.54	14% 14%

About FPL Projections