FPLWatch

Projections

FPL projections

Gameweek 1: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.

Early-season basis: FPL fixture difficulty — rolling xG takes over once every club has played 5 matches
Opponent
ArsenalARS
Fri 20:00
COVH
Coventry CityCOV
Fri 20:00
ARSA
Hull CityHUL
Sat 12:30
MUNH
Man UtdMUN
Sat 12:30
HULA
Nott'm ForestNFO
Sat 15:00
LEEH
LeedsLEE
Sat 15:00
NFOA
Ipswich TownIPS
Sat 15:00
SUNH
SunderlandSUN
Sat 15:00
IPSA
EvertonEVE
Sat 15:00
CRYH
Crystal PalaceCRY
Sat 15:00
EVEA
BrentfordBRE
Sat 17:30
TOTH
SpursTOT
Sat 17:30
BREA
BrightonBHA
Sun 14:00
AVLH
Aston VillaAVL
Sun 14:00
BHAA
Man CityMCI
Sun 14:00
BOUH
BournemouthBOU
Sun 14:00
MCIA
NewcastleNEW
Sun 16:30
LIVH
LiverpoolLIV
Sun 16:30
NEWA
FulhamFUL
Mon 20:00
CHEH
ChelseaCHE
Mon 20:00
FULA

About FPL Projections

FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.

Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".