Goals, clean sheets & likely scorelines per fixture
FPL projections
Gameweek 1: projected goals, clean-sheet odds and the most likely scorelines for every fixture.
Early-season basis: FPL fixture difficulty — rolling xG takes over once every club has played 5 matches
Opponent
ARS
Fri 20:00
Coventry CityCOVH
Fri 21/08 20:00
—
—
COV
Fri 20:00
ArsenalARSA
Fri 21/08 20:00
—
—
HUL
Sat 12:30
Man UtdMUNH
Sat 22/08 12:30
—
—
MUN
Sat 12:30
Hull CityHULA
Sat 22/08 12:30
—
—
NFO
Sat 15:00
LeedsLEEH
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
LEE
Sat 15:00
Nott'm ForestNFOA
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
IPS
Sat 15:00
SunderlandSUNH
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
SUN
Sat 15:00
Ipswich TownIPSA
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
EVE
Sat 15:00
Crystal PalaceCRYH
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
CRY
Sat 15:00
EvertonEVEA
Sat 22/08 15:00
—
—
BRE
Sat 17:30
SpursTOTH
Sat 22/08 17:30
—
—
TOT
Sat 17:30
BrentfordBREA
Sat 22/08 17:30
—
—
BHA
Sun 14:00
Aston VillaAVLH
Sun 23/08 14:00
—
—
AVL
Sun 14:00
BrightonBHAA
Sun 23/08 14:00
—
—
MCI
Sun 14:00
BournemouthBOUH
Sun 23/08 14:00
—
—
BOU
Sun 14:00
Man CityMCIA
Sun 23/08 14:00
—
—
NEW
Sun 16:30
LiverpoolLIVH
Sun 23/08 16:30
—
—
LIV
Sun 16:30
NewcastleNEWA
Sun 23/08 16:30
—
—
FUL
Mon 20:00
ChelseaCHEH
Mon 24/08 20:00
—
—
CHE
Mon 20:00
FulhamFULA
Mon 24/08 20:00
—
—
About FPL Projections
FPL projections turn team strength data into per-fixture expectations: how many goals each team is likely to score, the probability of keeping a clean sheet, and the three most-likely final scorelines. They are a starting point for transfer decisions and captaincy picks.
The model behind these numbers is a Poisson distribution applied to each club's attack and defence rating, itself a blend of this season's rolling xG (last ten matches) and last season's form — a club moves fully onto this season's data as it plays more matches. A home-advantage scalar nudges the home team's expected goals upward to reflect long-run home-field bias. Top scorelines are the three highest-probability cells from a 7x7 goal grid, and every finished fixture is scored nightly against the actual result.
Use the gameweek links to see future fixtures, or open a fixture for its full scoreline grid and seven-day trend. Pair this page with the Fixture Difficulty grid for a complete picture: difficulty answers "how tough is this run?", projections answer "how many goals do we expect?".