FPLWatch

Price predictions

Tonight’s projected price changes

FPL’s own price engine, figures refreshed every 15–30 minutes: 7 players projected at least 80% of the way to a rise, 61 to a fall.Prices change in000000

Projected at least 80% of the way to a rise

KonsaARSDEF£4.4mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 100% of the way to the threshold▲ 4983/hTonight +127.0% · likelihood 5~95% (provisional) · high confidenceHallNEWDEF£5.1mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 100% of the way to the threshold▲ 2489/hTonight +116.6% · likelihood 5~95% (provisional) · high confidenceAjayiHULDEF£4.1mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 97% of the way to the threshold▲ 2094/hTonight +106.1% · likelihood 5~95% (provisional) · high confidenceElangaNEWMID£6.1mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 100% of the way to the threshold▲ 798/hTonight +103.8% · likelihood 5~95% (provisional) · high confidenceJoão PedroCHEFWD£7.7mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 88% of the way to the threshold▲ 2798/hTonight +99.5% · likelihood 4Trend only · not projected to reach the change point tonightHavertzARSFWD£7.5mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 94% of the way to the threshold▲ 1243/hTonight +98.8% · likelihood 4Trend only · not projected to reach the change point tonightGvardiolMCIDEF£5.6mforecast to rise by 0.1 million, 79% of the way to the threshold▲ 449/hTonight +80.8% · likelihood 3Trend only · not projected to reach the change point tonight

Projected at least 80% of the way to a fall

No falls match these filters.

Locked (3)
J.TimberARSDEF£6.5mforecast to fall by 0.1 million, 0% of the way to the threshold▲ 0/hTonight -0.2% · likelihood -1Locked · no change tonightLocked until 15:30LivramentoNEWDEF£4.9mforecast to fall by 0.1 million, 0% of the way to the threshold▲ 0/hTonight -0.1% · likelihood -1Locked · no change tonightLocked until 12:30I.SangaréNFOMID£4.9mforecast to fall by 0.1 million, 0% of the way to the threshold▲ 0/hTonight -0.1% · likelihood -1Locked · no change tonightLocked until 20:30

About these predictions

Since the 2026/27 season FPL publishes the state of its own price-change engine for every player: a signed percentage showing progress toward the next change, an hourly transfer rate, and projections for the next three price-change windows with a -5 to +5 likelihood score. This page reads those fields straight from FPL's public data and presents them — it is not a separate prediction model.

"Likelihood" is FPL's own confidence score for a projection, from -5 to +5, not a probability. A price only changes when tonight's projection reaches ±100, so only those rows carry a probability: FPLWatch maps their likelihood to an indicative figure using a provisional fixed table, until enough nights are scored to replace it with our own empirical rates. A row projected short of ±100 is a trend reading — FPL expects no change tonight — whatever its likelihood. The wash filling each forecast block from the bottom is a separate figure: how far the player has already progressed tonight toward FPL's own change point, not a probability.

A player can be "locked" — held at probability zero regardless of their transfer activity, usually just after a change — or "calibrating", meaning FPL's engine has not yet seen enough signal to project with confidence. Both are shown separately rather than mixed into the main boards.

About FPL Price Predictions

FPLWatch predicts FPL price changes by tracking real-time transfer activity and comparing it against dynamic thresholds. Each player has a different threshold based on their ownership — the algorithm calculates how close each player is to triggering a rise or fall.

Predictions are colour-coded by confidence level. High-confidence predictions (shown in green or red) indicate players very likely to change overnight. Use these to decide whether to make early transfers to lock in value or avoid a drop.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are FPL price predictions?

FPLWatch predictions are based on real-time transfer activity data from the FPL API. Predictions become more accurate as the day progresses — by late evening, high-confidence predictions are typically reliable. Early in the day, transfer momentum can still shift.

When are FPL price predictions updated?

Predictions are updated hourly throughout the day. Transfer activity typically accelerates in the evening as more managers log in, so predictions made after 8 PM GMT tend to be the most reliable for overnight changes.